# Determination of hazard

The probabilistic seismic hazard maps (the maps of detailed seismic zoning) have been constructed for the total area of North Ossetia in scale 1:200000 with exceedance probability for a period of 50 years (standard time of building or construction durability!) with 1%, 2%, 5%, 10% in GIS technologies, which corresponds to reoccurance of maximum probable earthquake for a period of 5000, 2500, 1000 and 500 years (Fig.5). The longer the period of time the higher the level of possible intensity. For a period of 500 years only a small part will be occupied by the zone of 7 intensity earthquake, for a period of 1000 years – 8 intensity and at 2500 years 9 intensity earthquake appearance, correspondingly.

Cornell approach, namely сomputer program SEISRisk- 3, developed in 1987 by Bender and Perkins (Bender & Perkins, 1987) was used for the calculations. The map of observed maximum intensity was compared with the maps of different periods of exposition and the most real map was chosen on a basis of the analysis of differences between the observed and calculated maps. According to these criteria the map of 5% probability with exceedance probability of 50 years can be recommended for seismic zoning of the territory of North Ossetia. Besides, for the first time probability maps of seismic hazard for Russian territory were made in acceleration units in scale 1:200 000 with exceedance probability for a period of 50 years – 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%.

According to the Musson (Musson, 1999) conception, it is necessary to use the data, which is maximum approximate to the real engineering-geological conditions, at assessments of territory seismic hazard. For the territory of North Ossetia the exposition equal to 1000 years is the most approximate to real conditions for mass building. It is necessary to consider greater exposition, for example, 2500 years etc. for unique buildings and constructions.

The maps of 5% probability are likely to be used for the large scale building, i.e. the major type of constructions, whereas the maps of 2% probability should be used for high responsibility construction only (Fig.5).

One can see great hazard in the south of North Ossetia on the map, where exists the increased level of seismic hazard (due to powerful Vladikavkaz fault, lying nearby).

As a matter of principle it is possible to make maps in scale 1:100 000 etc., but it actually makes no practical sense. Although accuracy of such maps must be higher, adequacy of the results can be considered as doubtful due to absence of reliable data on local peculiarities of past, i.e. historical earthquakes display. Laboriousness (irretrievable) at that increases multiply.

Figure 6. Probabilistic map of seismic hazard (DSZ) in accelerations (PGA)with exceedance probability

5% (а) and 2% (b) for North Ossetia territory (Zaalishvili, 2006).

The scientists from Vladikavkaz in collaboration with the colleagues from the Institute of Physics of the Earth of RAS not only offer to use large-scale maps but also decided to continue investigations and cover the whole Northern Caucasus in scale 1:200 000. So, maps of seismic hazard can be made up in scale 1:200 000 for the Republics of Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Stavropol and Krasnodar areas and the other territories (Fig. 7). Taking into account, that faults and other peculiarities of the territory exist out of any boundaries, including state boundaries, it is possible to make unusual but quite physically proved single general map of detailed seismic zoning of the territory of Northern Caucasus in scale 1:200000, moreover, one can make them for different exposition times and accordingly for different probabilities. So, created maps of detailed seismic zoning of North Ossetia conform to earthquake realization once in 500 years, 5% – in 1000 years and 2% – in 2500 years. The level of seismic hazard grows with the time increase etc.

It is possible to make detailed maps of seismic hazard for the whole Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, due to the features of spreading of hazardous seismic sources, which «neglect» states’ boundaries. It is also possible to develop the maps jointly with Turkey and Iran and it’s real to include such countries as Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon etc.

Maps of detailed seismic zoning can be called «long-term» prediction maps. It means that long-term prediction of hazardous phenomena is realized on their basis and, correspondingly the place of earthquake-proof building-stock is determined Essentially, the long-term maps of expected intensities locations are that of described maps of detailed seismic zoning. Indeed, that evacuate people from the hazardous territory before expected earthquake is impossible, but it is real to prevent population burring under destroyed or, to be more precise, differently damaged buildings, which is formed on basis of such maps. The more educated society is the less seismic risk, i.e. economic and social losses.

So, the priorities are clear.

Figure 7. The mosaic of maps of hazardous potential seismic sources on the territories of the Northern Caucasus (model of the future joint map).

On basis of the given maps it is necessary to make up the maps of seismic microzonation (SMZ) of cities and large settlements of each certain subject of the Russian Federation with the usage of the most modern standard methods and tools, but in scale 1:10 000. The probabilistic maps of SMZ were first developed in the Center of Geophysical Investigations of Vladikavkaz Scientific Center RAS and RNO-A. Such maps of SMZ are direct and reliable base of earthquake-proof design and object construction.

Besides, it is necessary to note that at usage of the traditional units of macroseismic intensity the boundaries between different zones are characterized by sharp changes, which obviously do not correspond to the real situation of monotonous change of intensity for homogenous soil conditions of the investigated territory. No doubt, it will form evident inaccuracies at the assessment of the level of seismic hazard of this or that territory. The practical usage of artificial intensity subdivision, for example, in the form of 7.2 or 8.3 points is not validated enough from the theoretical point of view. So, firstly, it is not usually explained how these fractional assessments are obtained and, secondly, the following

transition to the acceleration units (obviously, according to foreign data, as there are no

acceleration records for forming reliable correlation in Russia), undoubtedly, forms

considerable inaccuracy and it is hardly ever physically proved because of the formality of

the parameter of «intensity» itself.

On the other hand, at seismic influence assessment at earthquake – proof design engineers use the acceleration values, (strictly speaking, conveniently) corresponding to specified intensities. Thus, it’s assumed that design acceleration a = 0.1 g corresponds to the intensity 7 earthquake, 0.2g – to the intensity 8, 0.4g – to the intensity 9 etc. At the same time, network of digital stations dislocated on the Southern Caucasus installed in source zones of Spitak (Armenia, 1988), Racha (Georgia, 1991), Barisakho (Georgia, 1992), Baku (Azerbaijan, 2000), Gouban (Georgia, 1991), Tbilisi (Georgia, 2002) and other earthquakes collected seismic records for formation of database of accelerations for Caucasus. Namely it makes possible to design maps of the seismic hazard independently in units of PGA. Such maps for the territory of North Ossetia for exposition of 50 years with exceedance probability 1%, 2%, 5%, 10% in scale 1:200 000 were created (Fig. 6). It is obvious that at changing of smoothering step it is possible to obtain smooth variations of accelerations directly used as design impacts.

In contrast to the maps of general seismic zoning (GSZ) with a scale of M 1: 8000000 and, at the best, with the scale M 1:2500000 obtained maps of both types on a scale 1:200000 can be referred to the DSZ type maps.

Thus, these materials allow assessing seismic hazard on a detailed level, according to the known formulas to calculate the macroseismic field of seismic effects on a scale that may provide a reliable basis for SMZ.